Price watch

Updated 16 September 2026

Why beef prices are up 13.5%

Beef prices jumped 13.5% year-on-year in March 2026. Queensland floods killed 148,000 cattle. What it means for your grocery budget and how long prices will stay high.

What Caused the Spike

Australia's cattle herd is recovering from a catastrophic supply shock. Flooding across western Queensland in early 2025 killed an estimated 100,000 or more head of livestock, with some counts topping 144,000 (ABC News; Sheep Central, April 2025). Graziers in the worst-hit areas reported losing large shares of their herds, and industry bodies warned it could take years to rebuild lost stock and genetics.

Reduced supply + steady demand = higher prices. Beef prices have climbed steadily since the floods, and as of March 2026, they're approaching their highest point in two years.

How Long Will Prices Stay High?

Cattle take 2-4 years to breed and fatten to slaughter weight. Even with immediate restocking efforts, full herd recovery won't happen until late 2027 or 2028. That means elevated beef prices are likely through all of 2026 and into early 2027.

However, prices may stabilize or fall slightly if:

• Export demand weakens (reducing competition for domestic supply)
• Farmers accelerate breeding programs with government support
• Feed prices stabilize (drought-driven feed scarcity lifted some pressure)
• Australian dollar weakens (making exports less attractive, keeping more beef domestic)

None of these are guaranteed, so planning for elevated beef prices through late 2026 is prudent.

Smart Meat Alternatives When Beef Is Expensive

You don't have to stop eating meat. Switching strategically keeps meals satisfying and budgets intact. Lamb is no refuge either: lamb prices were up around 47% year-on-year in March 2026 on a tighter national sheep flock and strong export demand (Australian livestock market data, 2026), so the cheaper swaps below matter more than ever.

Chicken is consistently cheaper than beef. Chicken thighs cost 30-40% less than beef mince and deliver equivalent protein. A kilogram of chicken thigh runs $8-12, while beef mince is $16-22/kg. For stir-fries, stews, and curries, the difference is minimal.

Eggs remain Australia's cheapest protein source. At $0.25-0.35 per egg, they deliver 6g of protein for a fraction of the cost of meat. Two eggs plus toast and vegetables beat a beef sandwich on cost and nutrition.

Tinned tuna and salmon are shelf-stable and cheaper than fresh or frozen beef. A 400g tin of tuna is $1.50-3.00 and provides 30g of protein. Use it in salads, pasta, and sandwiches.

Pork is sometimes cheaper than beef. Check unit prices at your supermarket weekly. During peaks and troughs, pork occasionally undercuts beef, especially for shoulder and mince cuts.

Beef Cuts to Watch for Specials

Not all beef cuts are rising equally. Cheaper cuts (brisket, chuck, shank) are more affordable than premium cuts (sirloin, ribeye). When specials occur, they're often on premium cuts to move inventory.

Best value cuts in 2026:

• Beef brisket: $12-16/kg (tenderizes well in slow cookers)
• Chuck steak: $14-18/kg (great for stews and curries)
• Beef mince (lean): $16-22/kg (reduced from $20-25 two years ago, relatively)
• Shank: $10-14/kg (long cooking, excellent flavour)

Pinch alerts you when these cuts drop below their monthly average, making it easy to spot genuine savings versus inflated base prices.

Building Resilience: Mix Protein Sources

Families relying on beef as their primary protein are most exposed to price spikes. Diversifying reduces vulnerability:

• Two meat meals per week (beef or pork)
• Two chicken meals per week
• Two plant-based meals (lentils, chickpeas, beans)
• One eggs-based meal (frittata, breakfast, lunch)

This approach costs 25-35% less than a beef-heavy diet while delivering equivalent protein and variety.