Price watch

Updated 8 May 2026

Fresh produce prices: what to expect at the checkout

Which vegetables will spike in price? Which will stay cheap? A forecast based on seasonal patterns, climate risks, and import dependency for Australian produce in 2026-2027.

Vegetables Most Vulnerable to Price Spikes

Tomatoes. Australia imports 60% of tomatoes during winter (June-August), making prices vulnerable to international supply disruptions. Expect $3-4 per kg in winter 2026, dropping to $1.50-2 in summer 2026-2027. Current risk: moderate. If Mediterranean heat waves damage European crops, Australian prices could spike earlier.

Capsicum. Grown primarily in Queensland and NSW, both drought-prone regions. Capsicum prices have climbed 8% year-on-year. Expect $4-6/kg through 2026, dropping slightly in autumn when supply increases. Risk: drought will keep prices elevated.

Lettuce and leafy greens. Grown in Tasmania and SA but vulnerable to temperature swings. Early frosts damage crops and spike prices. Watch late autumn 2026 (May-June) and spring 2026 (September-October). Risk: moderate, but hits suddenly.

Avocados. Australia grows 80% of its avocados but relies on seasonal flowering. Late frosts or irregular rainfall reduce yields. Currently tracking $1.20-1.80 each (expensive). Unlikely to drop below $0.80 in 2026. Risk: high, structural scarcity.

Vegetables That Will Stay Relatively Cheap

Potatoes and root vegetables. Grown domestically year-round in cool regions. Potatoes store naturally without refrigeration, reducing supply shocks. Expect $1-1.50/kg through 2026. Risk: low. These are your budget anchors.

Broccoli and cauliflower. Grown across Australia but peaking autumn/winter. Expect $2-4/kg in season, up to $5-6 off-season. But supply is stable. Risk: low to moderate.

Carrots and onions. Domestic production is robust. These keep for months after harvest. Prices stay $0.80-1.50/kg year-round. Risk: low.

Frozen vegetables. ALDI frozen vegetables run $2-3/kg year-round, bypassing seasonal volatility entirely. ALDI's sourcing locks in stable prices. Risk: low.

Import Dependency: The Hidden Risk

Australia imports significant produce from New Zealand and Southeast Asia when domestic supply is out of season:

• Kiwifruit: 100% imported. Vulnerable to NZ supply shocks. Currently $2-3 each. Risk: moderate.
• Blueberries: 70% imported. Expensive year-round ($15-25/punnett). Risk: moderate.
• Mangoes: 60% imported during winter. Local summer mangoes are cheap ($2-4/kg May-Dec). Winter imports run $6-10/kg. Risk: seasonal, expected.
• Asparagus: 50% imported. Local asparagus (Sept-Nov) runs $3-5/kg. Winter imports run $8-12/kg. Risk: seasonal, expected.

If shipping costs rise or international supply tightens, these prices escalate quickly. Plan around local seasonal availability rather than relying on imports.

Climate Forecasts and Food Prices

The Bureau of Meteorology projects:

• Drier 2026 (autumn/winter): Water scarcity affects NSW and Victoria lettuce, capsicum, and tomato regions. Expect price spikes May-August 2026.
• Warmer 2027: Early season crops may appear earlier but with smaller yields. Expect shorter supply windows and sharper price swings.
• La Nina timing uncertain: If La Nina arrives late 2026, spring 2026 will be drier (capsicum and beans suffer). If it arrives early 2027, late 2026 will see normal rainfall.

Translation: Autumn and winter 2026 will have elevated produce prices. Spring 2026 (September-November) will be cheaper but less certain. Freezing and pantry staples become critical.

Monthly Buying Strategy: 2026

May-June 2026 (autumn, post-Queensland recovery): Buy capsicum and tomatoes while stocks from summer harvest remain. Freeze tomatoes in sauces. Lettuce and leafy greens peak. Buy and use fresh immediately.

July-August 2026 (winter, import season): Avoid fresh tomatoes (imports, expensive). Rely on tinned tomatoes. Buy root vegetables (potatoes, carrots, onions) in bulk. Frozen vegetables all category. Capsicum high, consider freezing or choosing alternatives.

September-November 2026 (spring, variable): Peak for asparagus, peas, beans, broccoli. Buy frozen stock up. Lettuce and greens peak mid-spring. Buy fresh but freeze spinach and other hardy greens.

December-February 2026-2027 (summer): Tomatoes, zucchini, capsicum, berries, stone fruit cheap. Buy heavily and freeze. This is the peak freezing season.

Building Resilience: Avoid Peak Prices

Shopping smart means knowing which vegetables are seasonally cheap versus which are always expensive:

• Never buy tomatoes, capsicum, or asparagus in winter. Plan meals around root vegetables and frozen alternatives.
• Never buy berries in winter. Frozen berries from ALDI ($8-12/kg) beat fresh imported ($20-30/kg).
• Buy potatoes, carrots, and onions in bulk year-round. These are structural anchors of a budget produce strategy.
• Build your freezer during peak season (December-February). A $200 freezer investment in May provides 6 months of cheap vegetables.

Tracking Real-Time Prices

Forecasts help, but real prices matter. Pinch tracks actual weekly prices across all major Australian supermarkets, showing you whether tomatoes are currently at a seasonal low (buy and freeze) or a spike (wait).

52 weeks of history reveals the true seasonal pattern for each vegetable at your local supermarket. That's the ground truth that beats any forecast.