Price watch

Updated 30 April 2026

Tracking grocery prices before and after the ban

The price gouging ban starts July 1. How will you know if it made a difference? Here's what price data to track.

Why price history matters now.

The excessive pricing ban is unprecedented in Australian grocery regulation. No one knows exactly how the ACCC will interpret "significantly excessive" or how Coles and Woolworths will respond. The legislation provides a framework, but the real test is what happens on the shelf.

This is where independent price history becomes essential. You will not be relying on retailers' claims that prices are falling or holding steady. You will have the data.

Products to track before and after 1 July.

The ACCC's Supermarkets Inquiry identified specific categories where profit margins grew faster than input costs. These are the most likely to be affected by the ban:

• Beef mince (500g). Premium mince prices have surged while wholesale beef prices have been more moderate. Track the price at Coles and Woolworths from late June through August. If the ban bites, you should see stabilisation or decline.
• Butter (250g or 500g). Dairy products have been a key margin-growth category. Track home-brand and premium butter side by side. Competitor ALDI pricing shows what the legal floor might be.
• Free-range eggs (12 pack). Another category flagged in the inquiry. Free-range premiums have grown. If pricing normalises, it will show here first.
• Frozen vegetables (mixed, 500g). Some frozen categories saw margin growth outpace input costs. These are less visible than fresh produce, so pricing shifts may be easier to implement without customer backlash.
• Bacon (200g premium). Processed meat margins have grown. Compare with cheaper cuts like chicken thighs to see if competition begins to work.

How to track price change.

Pinch's price history feature is built for exactly this kind of analysis:

1. Search for a product (e.g., "beef mince") in the Pinch app.
2. Select the specific variant from the store you shop at (Coles or Woolworths).
3. View the price history chart. It shows you 52 weeks of data at a glance.
4. Note the price on 30 June 2026. This is your pre-ban baseline.
5. Compare with 1 July and beyond. Watch for changes in July, August, and September.

What you are looking for.

Three possible outcomes:

• Price decline or plateau. If the ban is working, high-margin products will stop rising or will actually fall. This is the clearest signal that enforcement is happening.
• Slower upward creep. Even if prices do not fall, the rate of increase might slow. June might have seen 3% weekly increases in beef mince; from July, only 0.5%. That would suggest retailers are now constrained by the legal ceiling.
• No change at all. If prices at Coles and Woolworths stay exactly where they were, either the ban is not being enforced or those products were not actually excessively priced under the legal test.

Comparing across retailers matters.

One of the most useful comparisons is Coles/Woolworths vs ALDI. ALDI is not covered by the ban. If ALDI prices are significantly lower than Coles/Woolworths, it suggests the larger retailers have pricing power they are using. If after 1 July, Coles and Woolworths move closer to ALDI's price, the ban is working.

Similarly, comparing Coles and Woolworths to each other. If the ban makes one retailer's prices visibly cheaper than the other, it suggests their cost of supply was genuinely different and the higher-priced retailer was exceeding the legal threshold.

What you can do with this data.

Beyond personal decision-making, this data matters. If prices are genuinely falling or moderating from 1 July, you will have proof. If they are not, you will have proof of that too. Share it. The ACCC accepts information from the public, and independent price data is exactly what the enforcement process needs.