What's happening

Updated 27 April 2026

What changes for your grocery bill on July 1

From July 1, price gouging becomes illegal. But what will you actually notice when you shop? Here's what will change, and what won't.

What you might notice.

The ban makes it illegal for Coles and Woolworths to charge prices that are "significantly excessive" compared to their cost of supply plus a reasonable margin. In theory, this creates a ceiling on how high prices can go in the categories where margins have been most inflated.

If you notice anything on 1 July, it will likely be one of these:

• Prices stabilising in high-margin categories. Beef mince, butter, eggs, and some frozen categories have seen margins grow faster than input costs. If Coles and Woolworths were using these categories to generate extra margin, they may flatten or decline.
• No visible change at all. For products that are not excessively priced under the legal test, nothing changes. The ban only bites on the most egregious cases.
• Slower upward creep. Even if prices do not fall, the rate of increases might moderate in high-margin categories, because the risk of exceeding the legal threshold increases.

What will not change.

The ban has real limits. Here is what it will not do:

• It will not cover ALDI, Harris Farm, or IGA. Only Coles and Woolworths are large enough (revenue over $30 billion) to be caught. If you are shopping at smaller chains, the ban does not apply.
• It will not prevent legitimate price increases. If the cost of wheat, fuel, or labour goes up, Coles and Woolworths can still raise prices to reflect those input costs. The ban only stops prices from going above cost-plus-a-reasonable-margin.
• It will not prevent all pricing tricks. Illusory discounts (comparing to an inflated reference price), price cycling (raising and dropping prices in tight cycles), and shrinkflation can all continue, provided the final price does not exceed the legal threshold.
• It will not guarantee immediate enforcement. The ACCC has to identify a breach, investigate it, and prove it in court. The clearest cases will be addressed first. Systemic, modest overpricing across thousands of products is harder to prove.

Categories to watch.

The ACCC's Supermarkets Inquiry identified several categories where profit margins grew faster than input costs:

• Beef mince and other premium cuts
• Butter and dairy spreads
• Eggs
• Some frozen categories
• Confectionery and snack foods

These are the most likely to see pressure under the ban. If prices have been artificially inflated in these categories, the illegal ceiling will be lower than the current shelf price, creating a downward incentive.

How to track what actually happens.

The legislation sets a framework. The real test is what happens on the shelf. Pinch monitors prices across Woolworths, Coles, ALDI, and Harris Farm, updating multiple times per week. As the ban takes effect, you can use this data to check whether prices are genuinely shifting or whether the status quo continues under a new label.

Compare the price of beef mince, butter, or eggs on 30 June with 1 July. Track them through August. If the ban has teeth, you should see stabilisation or declines in the highest-margin categories. If you see nothing, you will have learned something important about the enforcement environment.