PRICING ANALYSIS -- HI-LO CYCLES

2,308 products where the "sale" price is the new normal.

Hi-lo pricing is when a retailer regularly alternates a product between a high shelf price and a lower "special" price. The cycle repeats every few weeks, creating a constant stream of "discount" tags. We analysed 112 weeks of price history across 76,000+ products and found 14,473 products actively cycling. For 2,308 of them, even the bottom of the cycle -- the best price you can get -- is at least 15% higher than what the product actually cost a year ago.

The pattern

How a hi-lo cycle inflates prices while looking like discounts.

$10 $8 $6 $4 $2 Old price: $3.25 12+ MONTHS AGO CURRENT CYCLING $8.50 $6.00 "29% off!"

The tag says 29% off. The "sale" price of $6.00 is 85% more than the $3.25 this product cost a year ago. This cycle repeats every 2.2 weeks, 45 times in our data.

This pattern is based on real Lindt chocolate block data -- one of 25+ Lindt products cycling identically at both Coles and Woolworths.

14,473 Products actively cycling
2,308 With inflated sale price
15%+ above historical low
~28% Of all cyclers are inflated
1,095 At Coles
avg +22% actual increase
1,213 At Woolworths
avg +23% actual increase
35% Avg advertised discount
on products that cost more

How we detected it

  1. Identify products with 2+ complete price cycles in the last 52 weeks (price swings of 20%+ between high and low)
  2. Find each product's cycle-low price -- the bottom of the cycle in the last 26 weeks
  3. Compare to the historical minimum from 6-18 months ago (before or during early cycling)
  4. Flag products where the cycle-low is 15%+ above the historical minimum

Using the historical minimum (not the average or mode) means we're comparing today's best available price to the best price consumers had access to before. If even the cheapest point in the current cycle costs more than the cheapest point used to, the entire cycle has been ratcheted upward.

See also: Illusory Discounts -- 230 products currently on "special" at prices above their old normal price.

Worst-offending categories (top 200 shown)

The products below are the 200 most inflated hi-lo cyclers we found -- the ones where the gap between the old price and the new "sale" price is largest. The full dataset contains 2,308 products.

Coles 1,095 total -- 87 worst shown

Coffee

Product Used to cost Cycle high "Sale" price Tag says Actually
Decaf Coffee Beans $12.50 $38.00 $30.00 (31 cycles / 3.1w) 21% off +140%
Organic Classic Medium Roast Fairtrade Coffee $7.35 $18.00 $14.50 (9 cycles / 5.2w) 19% off +97%
Organic Decaffeinated Medium Roast Fairtrade Coffee $7.65 $18.00 $14.50 (9 cycles / 5.2w) 19% off +90%
Organic Espresso Coffee Beans $25.00 $64.00 $44.80 (39 cycles / 2.4w) 30% off +79%
Supreme Coffee Beans $12.50 $38.00 $22.00 (29 cycles / 3.3w) 42% off +76%
Espresso Magic Coffee $12.50 $38.00 $22.00 (29 cycles / 3.3w) 42% off +76%
Cafe - Q Classico Coffee Beans $13.00 $32.00 $22.00 (37 cycles / 2.6w) 31% off +69%
Cafe - Q Cremello Coffee Beans $13.00 $32.00 $22.00 (37 cycles / 2.6w) 31% off +69%
Latte Beans Coffee $20.00 $56.00 $33.00 (39 cycles / 2.5w) 41% off +65%
Blend 43 Instant Coffee $8.40 $23.00 $13.80 (18 cycles / 4.9w) 40% off +64%
Espresso Ground Coffee $24.00 $56.00 $39.00 (39 cycles / 2.5w) 30% off +63%
Espresso Coffee Beans $24.00 $56.00 $39.00 (39 cycles / 2.5w) 30% off +63%
Sachets Classic Chai Latte $4.00 $8.00 $6.50 (13 cycles / 5.9w) 19% off +63%
Dark Roast Beans $20.00 $40.00 $32.00 (31 cycles / 3.2w) 20% off +60%
Medium/Dark Beans $20.00 $40.00 $32.00 (31 cycles / 3.2w) 20% off +60%

Noodles, Wraps & Prepared

Product Used to cost Cycle high "Sale" price Tag says Actually
Mirin Seasoning $1.60 $4.40 $3.50 (13 cycles / 6.8w) 20% off +119%
Yaki Nori Seaweed Sushi Sheets $1.60 $4.00 $3.20 (13 cycles / 6.8w) 20% off +100%
Tempura Batter Mix $1.60 $3.95 $3.15 (11 cycles / 8w) 20% off +97%
Sushi Seasoning $1.60 $3.60 $2.85 (13 cycles / 6.8w) 21% off +78%
Cooking Sake $1.60 $3.60 $2.85 (13 cycles / 6.8w) 21% off +78%
Teriyaki Marinade $1.60 $3.60 $2.85 (13 cycles / 6.8w) 21% off +78%
Sushi & Sashimi Soy Sauce $1.60 $3.60 $2.85 (13 cycles / 6.8w) 21% off +78%
Ramen Tokyo Shoyu Noodles 5 Pack $4.25 $8.50 $6.80 (5 cycles / 18.2w) 20% off +60%
Ramen Kyushu Black Noodle $4.25 $8.50 $6.80 (5 cycles / 18.2w) 20% off +60%

Beauty & Personal Care

Product Used to cost Cycle high "Sale" price Tag says Actually
Shockwaves Extreme $2.50 $6.00 $5.00 (19 cycles / 4.3w) 17% off +100%
Firm Hairspray $3.00 $6.00 $5.00 (6 cycles / 9.2w) 17% off +67%
Extra Firm Hairspray $3.00 $6.00 $5.00 (4 cycles / 7.5w) 17% off +67%
Illusions Body Spray $3.00 $6.00 $4.80 (19 cycles / 3.2w) 20% off +60%
Women's Merely Musk Body Spray $3.00 $6.00 $4.80 (19 cycles / 3.2w) 20% off +60%

Fresh Produce & Meat

Product Used to cost Cycle high "Sale" price Tag says Actually
Pink Lady Apples Medium $0.60 $1.78 $1.18 (5 cycles / 9.2w) 34% off +97%
Ready To Drink Apple & Raspberry $1.75 $4.50 $3.00 (10 cycles / 8.1w) 33% off +71%
Baby Cucumbers $3.50 $6.90 $5.90 (3 cycles / 10.7w) 14% off +69%
Pink Lady Apples $3.50 $8.90 $5.90 (3 cycles / 16.7w) 34% off +69%
Capsicum Green Loose $1.08 $3.06 $1.74 (3 cycles / 12.7w) 43% off +61%
8 Months+ Blueberry & Strawberry Corn Sticks $1.25 $2.50 $2.00 (45 cycles / 2.2w) 20% off +60%

Chocolate & Confectionery

Product Used to cost Cycle high "Sale" price Tag says Actually
Excellence Roasted Almond Dark Chocolate Block $3.25 $8.50 $5.95 (39 cycles / 2.5w) 30% off +83%
Excellence 70% Smooth Dark Chocolate Block $3.25 $8.50 $5.95 (39 cycles / 2.5w) 30% off +83%
Excellence 78% Cocoa Dark Chocolate Block $3.25 $8.50 $5.95 (39 cycles / 2.5w) 30% off +83%
Excellence 90% Cocoa Dark Chocolate Block $3.25 $9.75 $5.95 (3 cycles / 4.3w) 39% off +83%
Excellence Sea Salt Dark Chocolate Block $3.25 $8.50 $5.95 (39 cycles / 2.5w) 30% off +83%
Excellence Sea Salt Caramel Dark Chocolate Block $3.25 $8.50 $5.95 (39 cycles / 2.5w) 30% off +83%
Excellence 95% Cocoa Ultimate Dark Chocolate Block $3.25 $9.75 $5.95 (3 cycles / 4.3w) 39% off +83%
Excellence 70% Cocoa Dark Chocolate Block $3.25 $8.50 $5.95 (39 cycles / 2.5w) 30% off +83%
Excellence Raspberry Intense Dark Chocolate Block $3.25 $8.50 $5.95 (39 cycles / 2.5w) 30% off +83%
Excellence 85% Cocoa Dark Chocolate Block $3.25 $8.50 $5.95 (39 cycles / 2.5w) 30% off +83%
Extra Creamy Excellence Milk Chocolate Block $3.25 $8.50 $5.95 (39 cycles / 2.5w) 30% off +83%
Excellence Milk Sea Salt Caramel Milk Chocolate Block $3.25 $8.50 $5.95 (35 cycles / 2.7w) 30% off +83%
Excellence Orange Dark Chocolate Block $3.25 $8.50 $5.95 (39 cycles / 2.5w) 30% off +83%
Excellence Mint Intense Dark Chocolate Block $3.25 $8.50 $5.95 (39 cycles / 2.5w) 30% off +83%
Dark Chocolate Baking Chips $2.50 $7.50 $4.50 (30 cycles / 2.6w) 40% off +80%
Baking 70% Cocoa Dark Chocolate Block $2.50 $7.50 $4.50 (30 cycles / 2.7w) 40% off +80%
Milk Chocolate Baking Chips $2.50 $7.50 $4.50 (30 cycles / 2.6w) 40% off +80%
Baking Dark Chocolate Melts $2.50 $7.50 $4.50 (30 cycles / 2.6w) 40% off +80%
Milk Chocolate Melting Buttons $2.50 $7.50 $4.50 (30 cycles / 2.6w) 40% off +80%
Baking White Chocolate Block $2.50 $7.50 $4.50 (30 cycles / 2.7w) 40% off +80%
Baking Dark Chocolate Block $2.50 $7.50 $4.50 (30 cycles / 2.7w) 40% off +80%
Milk Chocolate Baking Block $2.50 $7.50 $4.50 (30 cycles / 2.7w) 40% off +80%
Chocolate Chip Bar $1.75 $4.00 $3.00 (11 cycles / 5.8w) 25% off +71%
White Chocolate Macadamia Bar $1.75 $4.00 $3.00 (11 cycles / 5.8w) 25% off +71%
Pascall Chocolate Coated Clinkers Lollies $3.00 $7.00 $4.90 (21 cycles / 4.6w) 30% off +63%

Baking

Product Used to cost Cycle high "Sale" price Tag says Actually
White Choc Baking Chips $2.50 $7.50 $4.50 (30 cycles / 2.6w) 40% off +80%
Organic Mango & Banana Coconut Melts $3.25 $6.50 $5.20 (11 cycles / 4.6w) 20% off +60%

Pantry Staples

Product Used to cost Cycle high "Sale" price Tag says Actually
Natural Style Muesli $4.50 $9.50 $8.00 (8 cycles / 6w) 16% off +78%
Superb Chicken Stock Powder $2.00 $4.00 $3.50 (16 cycles / 3.4w) 13% off +75%
Crunchy Peanut Butter Bar $1.75 $4.00 $3.00 (11 cycles / 5.8w) 25% off +71%
Australian Sunmuscat Sultanas $3.00 $6.00 $5.00 (3 cycles / 10.3w) 17% off +67%
Natural Almond Butter $3.50 $8.00 $5.60 (13 cycles / 5.5w) 30% off +60%
Crunchy Natural Almond Butter $3.50 $8.00 $5.60 (13 cycles / 5.5w) 30% off +60%

Household & Cleaning

Product Used to cost Cycle high "Sale" price Tag says Actually
General Purpose Refill $3.15 $6.30 $5.30 (26 cycles / 3.7w) 16% off +68%
Anti-bacterial Liquid Handwash Aloe Vera $2.75 $7.00 $4.50 (11 cycles / 5.2w) 36% off +64%
Anti-bacterial Liquid Handwash Grapefruit $2.75 $7.00 $4.50 (11 cycles / 5.2w) 36% off +64%
Wizard Duster $4.80 $9.65 $7.70 (13 cycles / 6.8w) 20% off +60%

Yoghurt

Product Used to cost Cycle high "Sale" price Tag says Actually
High Protein Yoghurt Pouch No Added Sugar Vanilla $1.50 $3.20 $2.50 (3 cycles / 11.7w) 22% off +67%
High Protein Yoghurt Pouch No Added Sugar Mango $1.50 $3.20 $2.50 (3 cycles / 11.7w) 22% off +67%
High Protein Yoghurt Pouch No Added Sugar Mixed Berries $1.50 $3.20 $2.50 (3 cycles / 11.7w) 22% off +67%
High Protein Yoghurt Pouch No Added Sugar Strawberry $1.50 $3.20 $2.50 (3 cycles / 11.7w) 22% off +67%
Perform High Protein Yoghurt No Added Sugar Strawberry $1.85 $3.90 $3.00 (5 cycles / 5.8w) 23% off +62%
Perform High Protein Yoghurt No Added Sugar Banana $1.85 $3.90 $3.00 (5 cycles / 5.8w) 23% off +62%
Perform High Protein M/passionfruit Yoghurt No Added Sugar $1.85 $3.90 $3.00 (5 cycles / 5.8w) 23% off +62%
Perform High Protein Yoghurt No Added Sugar Mixed Berry $1.85 $3.90 $3.00 (5 cycles / 5.8w) 23% off +62%
Organic Strawberry & Banana Yoghurt Melts $3.25 $6.50 $5.20 (11 cycles / 4.6w) 20% off +60%
Perform High Protein Yoghurt Pouch No Added Sugar Mixed Berries $1.85 $3.90 $2.95 (3 cycles / 6.3w) 24% off +59%

Baby & Kids

Product Used to cost Cycle high "Sale" price Tag says Actually
Organic Banana Bread Oaty Bars $3.00 $6.65 $5.00 (13 cycles / 3.5w) 25% off +67%
Carrot Cake Oaty Bars $3.00 $6.65 $5.00 (13 cycles / 3.5w) 25% off +67%
Baby Organic Cotton Pads $2.50 $5.20 $4.15 (17 cycles / 2.9w) 20% off +66%
8 Months+ Banana & Mango Corn Sticks $1.25 $2.50 $2.00 (43 cycles / 2.3w) 20% off +60%

Tea

Product Used to cost Cycle high "Sale" price Tag says Actually
Bengal Spice Tea Bags 20 pack $3.70 $7.50 $5.90 (20 cycles / 4.1w) 21% off +59%

Woolworths 1,213 total -- 113 worst shown

Beauty & Personal Care

Product Used to cost Cycle high "Sale" price Tag says Actually
Revlon Super Lustrous Lipstick Soft Silver Rose $5.00 $29.00 $14.50 (20 cycles / 4w) 50% off +190%
Toni & Guy Natural Bristle Brush $5.00 $24.00 $12.00 (31 cycles / 2.9w) 50% off +140%
Revlon Super Lustrous Lipstick Blushed $5.00 $29.00 $10.00 (29 cycles / 3.2w) 66% off +100%
Skin Control Glass Skin Face Mask Hyaluronic Acid $3.25 $13.00 $6.50 (19 cycles / 4.9w) 50% off +100%
GloEarth Recycled Plastic Paddle Hair Brush $5.50 $11.00 $10.00 (2 cycles / 6.5w) 9% off +82%
GloEarth Recycled Grooming Hair Brush $4.50 $9.00 $8.00 (2 cycles / 6.5w) 11% off +78%
Nivea Body Lotion Rich Nourishing 48h $2.00 $4.00 $3.50 (11 cycles / 2.7w) 13% off +75%
Carmex Minis Lip Balm $4.50 $9.00 $7.50 (19 cycles / 4.9w) 17% off +67%
My Soda Hydrate Nourishing Conditioner For Dry & Damaged Hair $9.00 $20.00 $15.00 (16 cycles / 5.1w) 25% off +67%
My Soda Smooth & Silky Shampoo For Frizz Prone Hair $9.00 $20.00 $15.00 (16 cycles / 5.1w) 25% off +67%
My Soda Hydrate Nourishing Shampoo For Dry & Damaged Hair $9.00 $20.00 $15.00 (16 cycles / 5.1w) 25% off +67%
My Soda Smooth & Silky Conditioner For Frizz Prone Hair $9.00 $20.00 $15.00 (16 cycles / 5.1w) 25% off +67%
Manicare Buffer 4 Way $5.00 $10.00 $8.00 (10 cycles / 4.9w) 20% off +60%

Fresh Produce & Meat

Product Used to cost Cycle high "Sale" price Tag says Actually
Macro Organic Lebanese Cucumber $2.90 $9.90 $6.90 (2 cycles / 15w) 30% off +138%
Pumpkin Kent Cut $1.05 $3.33 $2.38 (9 cycles / 4.7w) 29% off +127%
Macro Wholefoods Market Organic Australian Mini Cucumbers $2.40 $7.50 $4.90 (6 cycles / 8.8w) 35% off +104%
Organic Pumpkin Butternut $2.70 $6.90 $4.90 (2 cycles / 9.5w) 29% off +81%
Fresh Kent Pumpkin Whole $3.90 $9.45 $6.75 (29 cycles / 3.3w) 29% off +73%
Macro Organic Red Capsicum $6.50 $13.50 $10.90 (3 cycles / 24w) 19% off +68%
Ozesauce Tomato Sauce $2.00 $4.00 $3.30 (9 cycles / 10.3w) 18% off +65%
Only Organic Strawberry & Apple Oat Bars With Wholegrains $2.75 $5.50 $4.50 (31 cycles / 3.1w) 18% off +64%
The Odd Bunch Strawberries Punnet $3.00 $7.50 $4.90 (6 cycles / 9w) 35% off +63%
Apple Royal Gala $0.48 $1.26 $0.78 (9 cycles / 4.9w) 38% off +63%
Woolworths 3 Colour Traffic Light Capsicums $4.90 $9.90 $7.90 (5 cycles / 15.4w) 20% off +61%
V8 Apple Berry Juice Multipack $2.25 $4.50 $3.60 (30 cycles / 2.6w) 20% off +60%
Only Organic Melty Corn Sticks Strawberry & Blueberry $1.25 $2.50 $2.00 (31 cycles / 3.1w) 20% off +60%
Macro Chicken Breast Fillets Free Range $9.60 $16.20 $15.30 (9 cycles / 5.3w) 6% off +59%

Cheese & Dairy

Product Used to cost Cycle high "Sale" price Tag says Actually
Hunter Belle Dairy Co Briebelle Triple Cream Brie $3.50 $10.50 $7.90 (5 cycles / 12.2w) 25% off +126%
Fior Di Maso Provolone Valpadana DOP $5.00 $9.00 $8.00 (9 cycles / 4.4w) 11% off +60%

Noodles, Wraps & Prepared

Product Used to cost Cycle high "Sale" price Tag says Actually
Always Fresh Dolmades $2.45 $5.80 $5.20 (12 cycles / 6.5w) 10% off +112%
Mission Mini Wholegrain Wraps $2.75 $5.50 $4.50 (20 cycles / 3.5w) 18% off +64%
Mission Wraps Mini Wheat $2.75 $5.50 $4.50 (20 cycles / 3.5w) 18% off +64%
Mission Wraps Mini Original $2.75 $5.50 $4.50 (20 cycles / 3.5w) 18% off +64%
I Pastai Fresh Pasta Pappardelle $3.00 $6.00 $4.90 (16 cycles / 4.2w) 18% off +63%

Pantry Staples

Product Used to cost Cycle high "Sale" price Tag says Actually
Lucky Oven Roasted Almonds $4.25 $10.00 $8.50 (11 cycles / 5.2w) 15% off +100%
Lucky Hazelnut Meal $5.00 $11.00 $9.00 (7 cycles / 7.9w) 18% off +80%
Lucky Flaked Almonds $2.25 $5.00 $4.00 (13 cycles / 5w) 20% off +78%
Lucky Slivered Almonds $2.25 $5.00 $4.00 (13 cycles / 5w) 20% off +78%
Continental Classics Stock Powder Chicken stock powder $2.00 $4.00 $3.50 (19 cycles / 3.1w) 13% off +75%
Mayver's Squeezy Crunchy Peanut Butter $3.00 $6.00 $5.00 (19 cycles / 4.3w) 17% off +67%
Mayver's Squeezy Smooth Peanut Butter $3.00 $6.00 $5.00 (19 cycles / 4.3w) 17% off +67%
Fehlbergs Onions Pickled $2.00 $4.00 $3.20 (7 cycles / 11.1w) 20% off +60%
Always Fresh Capers Vinegar $2.00 $4.00 $3.20 (12 cycles / 7.8w) 20% off +60%

Chocolate & Confectionery

Product Used to cost Cycle high "Sale" price Tag says Actually
Toblerone Orange Twist Chocolate Bar Milk Chocolate Bar $5.00 $20.00 $10.00 (14 cycles / 6w) 50% off +100%
Cadbury Breakaway Milk Chocolate Biscuits $2.50 $6.00 $4.80 (39 cycles / 2.5w) 20% off +92%
Lindt Excellence Dark Chocolate 70% Cocoa Block $3.25 $8.50 $6.00 (45 cycles / 2.2w) 29% off +85%
Lindt Excellence Extra Creamy Milk Chocolate Block $3.25 $8.50 $6.00 (45 cycles / 2.2w) 29% off +85%
Lindt Excellence Sea Salt Caramel Dark Chocolate Block $3.25 $8.50 $6.00 (45 cycles / 2.2w) 29% off +85%
Lindt Excellence 90% Cocoa Dark Chocolate Block $3.25 $9.75 $6.00 (42 cycles / 2.3w) 38% off +85%
Lindt Excellence Mint Intense Dark Chocolate Block $3.25 $8.50 $6.00 (45 cycles / 2.2w) 29% off +85%
Lindt Excellence Raspberry Intense Dark Chocolate Block $3.25 $8.50 $6.00 (45 cycles / 2.2w) 29% off +85%
Lindt Excellence Sea Salt Dark Chocolate Block $3.25 $8.50 $6.00 (45 cycles / 2.2w) 29% off +85%
Lindt Excellence Roasted Almond Dark Chocolate Block $3.25 $8.50 $6.00 (45 cycles / 2.2w) 29% off +85%
Lindt Lindor Hazelnut Milk Chocolate Block $3.25 $8.50 $6.00 (22 cycles / 3.7w) 29% off +85%
Lindt Excellence 78% Cocoa Dark Chocolate Block $3.25 $8.50 $6.00 (45 cycles / 2.2w) 29% off +85%
Lindt Excellence 95% Cocoa Dark Chocolate Block $3.25 $9.75 $6.00 (42 cycles / 2.3w) 38% off +85%
Lindt Excellence Dark Chocolate 70% Smooth Blend Cocoa Block $3.25 $8.50 $6.00 (45 cycles / 2.2w) 29% off +85%
Lindt Excellence Dark Chocolate Block Orange Intense $3.25 $8.50 $6.00 (45 cycles / 2.2w) 29% off +85%
Lindt Excellence Dark Chocolate 85% Cocoa Block $3.25 $8.50 $6.00 (45 cycles / 2.2w) 29% off +85%
Galaxy Chocolate $1.50 $3.70 $2.75 (7 cycles / 7.6w) 26% off +83%
Cadbury Baking Dark Chocolate Melts $2.50 $7.50 $4.50 (27 cycles / 3w) 40% off +80%
Cadbury Baking White Chocolate Chips $2.50 $7.50 $4.50 (27 cycles / 3w) 40% off +80%
Cadbury Baking White Chocolate Block $2.50 $7.50 $4.50 (27 cycles / 3w) 40% off +80%
Cadbury Baking Milk Chocolate Block $2.50 $7.50 $4.50 (27 cycles / 3w) 40% off +80%
Cadbury Baking Milk Chocolate Chips $2.50 $7.50 $4.50 (27 cycles / 3w) 40% off +80%
Cadbury Baking Milk Chocolate Melts $2.50 $7.50 $4.50 (27 cycles / 3w) 40% off +80%
Cadbury Baking Dark Chocolate Chips $2.50 $7.50 $4.50 (27 cycles / 3w) 40% off +80%
Lindt No Sugar Added Milk Chocolate Block $4.50 $9.75 $7.95 (31 cycles / 3.2w) 18% off +77%
Lindt No Sugar Added Dark Chocolate Block $4.50 $9.75 $7.95 (31 cycles / 3.2w) 18% off +77%
Sweet William Original Chocolate Dairy Free $3.70 $8.00 $6.50 (19 cycles / 4.9w) 19% off +76%
Mr Brownie Chocolate Brownies $3.25 $6.50 $5.50 (22 cycles / 4.1w) 15% off +69%

Coffee

Product Used to cost Cycle high "Sale" price Tag says Actually
Vittoria Mountain Grown Ground Coffee $13.25 $36.00 $25.00 (39 cycles / 2.3w) 31% off +89%
Illy Classico Espresso Capsules $4.00 $9.50 $7.50 (25 cycles / 3.4w) 21% off +88%
Illy Espresso Forte Capsules $4.00 $9.50 $7.50 (25 cycles / 3.4w) 21% off +88%
Sacred Grounds Ola Brazil Coffee Beans $11.50 $31.00 $20.00 (17 cycles / 5.2w) 35% off +74%
Nescafe Blend 43 Espresso Instant Coffee Jar $10.00 $27.50 $16.50 (6 cycles / 9.8w) 40% off +65%
Nescafe Blend 43 Instant Coffee $10.00 $27.50 $16.50 (6 cycles / 9.8w) 40% off +65%
Nescafe Blend 43 Dark Roast Instant Coffee Jar $10.00 $27.50 $16.50 (6 cycles / 9.8w) 40% off +65%
Bean Ground & Drunk Organic Fairtrade Coffee Decaff $8.25 $18.00 $13.30 (7 cycles / 5w) 26% off +61%

Drinks & Beverages

Product Used to cost Cycle high "Sale" price Tag says Actually
The Jelly Co Konjac Jelly Juicy Peach $1.00 $3.60 $1.80 (17 cycles / 5.1w) 50% off +80%
V8 Breakfast Juice Multipack $2.25 $4.50 $3.60 (30 cycles / 2.6w) 20% off +60%
V8 Tropical Juce Multipack $2.25 $4.50 $3.60 (30 cycles / 2.6w) 20% off +60%

Baby & Kids

Product Used to cost Cycle high "Sale" price Tag says Actually
Bibs Colour Pacifier Glow In The Dark Size 2 Assorted $11.25 $22.50 $20.00 (18 cycles / 4.5w) 11% off +78%
Bibs Glow In The Dark Pacifier Size 3 $11.25 $22.50 $20.00 (18 cycles / 4.5w) 11% off +78%
Palmolive Kids Foaming Liquid Hand Wash Bluey Cheeky Berry $2.00 $4.00 $3.20 (43 cycles / 2.3w) 20% off +60%
Only Organic Melty Corn Sticks Banana & Mango $1.25 $2.50 $2.00 (31 cycles / 3.1w) 20% off +60%

Cereals & Snack Bars

Product Used to cost Cycle high "Sale" price Tag says Actually
Uncle Tobys Natural Style Swiss Blend Muesli Breakfast Cereal $4.50 $9.00 $8.00 (9 cycles / 5.2w) 11% off +78%
Kellogg's All-Bran Wheat Flakes Breakfast Cereal $3.25 $6.50 $5.20 (15 cycles / 4.1w) 20% off +60%
Kellogg's All-Bran Flakes Honey Almond Breakfast Cereal $4.00 $8.00 $6.40 (15 cycles / 4.1w) 20% off +60%
Kellogg's All-Bran High Fibre Breakfast Cereal $4.00 $8.00 $6.40 (15 cycles / 4.1w) 20% off +60%
Sunrice Thin Rice Cakes Sour Cream & Chives $1.25 $2.50 $2.00 (31 cycles / 3w) 20% off +60%
Sunrice Thin Rice Cakes Salt & Balsamic Vinegar $1.25 $2.50 $2.00 (31 cycles / 3w) 20% off +60%
Uncle Tobys Le Snak Cheddar Cheese Dip & Crackers $5.00 $10.00 $8.00 (29 cycles / 3w) 20% off +60%
Uncle Tobys Le Snak Tasty Cheese Dip & Crackers $5.00 $10.00 $8.00 (29 cycles / 3w) 20% off +60%
Kellogg's LCMs Choc Chip Rice Bubbles Snack Bars $3.75 $7.50 $6.00 (23 cycles / 3.7w) 20% off +60%
Kellogg's LCMs Kaleidos Rice Bubbles Snack Bars $3.75 $7.50 $6.00 (23 cycles / 3.7w) 20% off +60%
Kellogg's Nutri Grain Bars Original $3.75 $7.50 $6.00 (23 cycles / 3.7w) 20% off +60%
Mulino Bianco Baiocchi Biscuits $2.50 $5.00 $4.00 (28 cycles / 3.5w) 20% off +60%
Kellogg's Special K Forest Berries Breakfast Cereal $3.90 $7.80 $6.20 (15 cycles / 4.1w) 21% off +59%

Yoghurt

Product Used to cost Cycle high "Sale" price Tag says Actually
Cocobella Dairy Free Vanilla Coconut Yoghurt $1.25 $2.70 $2.20 (3 cycles / 13.3w) 19% off +76%
Cocobella Dairy Free Coconut Yoghurt Mango $1.25 $2.70 $2.20 (3 cycles / 13.3w) 19% off +76%
YoPRO Perform High Protein Yoghurt Strawberry $1.85 $3.90 $3.00 (5 cycles / 6w) 23% off +62%
YoPRO Perform High Protein Yoghurt Mixed Berry $1.85 $3.90 $3.00 (5 cycles / 6w) 23% off +62%
YoPRO Perform High Protein Yoghurt Mango Passionfruit $1.85 $3.90 $3.00 (5 cycles / 6w) 23% off +62%
Kellogg's LCMs Split Stix Yoghurty Rice Bubbles Snack Bars $3.75 $7.50 $6.00 (23 cycles / 3.7w) 20% off +60%

Health & Wellness

Product Used to cost Cycle high "Sale" price Tag says Actually
Lifestyles Silky Smooth Water Based Lubricant $4.20 $8.50 $7.00 (15 cycles / 3.3w) 18% off +67%

Organic & Natural

Product Used to cost Cycle high "Sale" price Tag says Actually
Macro Fresh Celery Heart Organic $4.40 $8.50 $7.30 (3 cycles / 9.7w) 14% off +66%
Only Organic Oat Bars Banana & Raisin $2.75 $5.50 $4.50 (31 cycles / 3.1w) 18% off +64%

Household & Cleaning

Product Used to cost Cycle high "Sale" price Tag says Actually
Palmolive Antibacterial Hand Sanitiser Cherry Blossom $3.75 $7.50 $6.00 (39 cycles / 2.4w) 20% off +60%
Ansell Simply Easy TPE Disposable Gloves Medium/Large $4.50 $9.00 $7.20 (12 cycles / 6.7w) 20% off +60%
Elbow Grease Multipurpose Degreaser $2.50 $5.00 $4.00 (24 cycles / 3.4w) 20% off +60%
Hygiene Plus Latex Gloves Disposable Powderfree One Size $7.50 $15.00 $12.00 (19 cycles / 5.2w) 20% off +60%

Tea

Product Used to cost Cycle high "Sale" price Tag says Actually
Celestial Seasonings Bengal Spice Herbal Tea Bags $3.70 $7.40 $5.90 (19 cycles / 4.5w) 20% off +59%

What this means

The cycle IS the trick

When a product oscillates between $8.50 and $6.00 every two weeks, every second week has a "29% off" tag. But the product used to cost $3.25. The cycle creates permanent discount theatre on a product that costs nearly twice what it did a year ago.

Entire product lines move in lockstep

Lindt chocolate blocks, Nescafe coffees, Kellogg's cereals -- dozens of SKUs within a brand cycle on identical schedules with identical percentages. This is programmatic pricing, not supply-and-demand fluctuation.

23 cycles on average

The average product in this dataset has completed 23 full price cycles over the past year. That's not a temporary promotion -- it's a permanent pricing structure designed to always have a discount tag visible.

Methodology

  • Database: 76,000+ products tracked across Coles and Woolworths
  • Price history: 112 weeks (March 2024 -- May 2026)
  • Cycle detection: Products with 2+ complete high-low cycles in the last 52 weeks, with 20%+ price swing between min and max
  • Baseline: Minimum price observed in weeks 26-78 (6-18 months ago), requiring 12+ weeks of data
  • Threshold: Current cycle-low must exceed historical minimum by 15%+
  • Analysis date: May 7, 2026