Price watch

Updated 2 May 2026

Which products are most likely to drop in price after July?

The ACCC found specific categories where profit margins grew faster than input costs. Here are the products most likely to see price pressure from the ban.

What the ACCC actually found.

In February 2025, the ACCC released its final Supermarkets Inquiry report. The inquiry examined pricing across dozens of product categories and found something important: in several categories, Coles and Woolworths had increased their profit margins substantially, even though the underlying input costs had not risen to match those margin increases.

This pricing pattern is what the excessive pricing ban targets. If a retailer's margin has been growing faster than input costs, it suggests the price contains a profit spike that is unjustifiable by reference to cost of supply. Under the ban, that price becomes illegal if it is "significantly excessive."

High-margin meat categories.

Beef mince and premium cuts. The ACCC found that margins on beef mince and premium beef cuts have grown substantially. Wholesale beef prices have been volatile but not consistently upward. Yet Coles and Woolworths prices have surged. An average family buying mince twice a week would save $50 to $100 per year if pricing moderated to pre-2023 margins.

Bacon and premium processed meats. Similar pattern. Bacon prices have risen faster than wholesale pork prices. If the ban bites here, it is visible immediately, because bacon is a high-value product that shoppers notice.

Lamb. Lamb pricing follows the same trend. Margins are up, input cost justification is weak.

Dairy and eggs.

Butter. A critical finding. Butter prices at Coles and Woolworths surged in 2023 and have remained elevated. The ACCC found that wholesale dairy costs did not fully justify the retail margin increases. Butter is also a product where ALDI prices provide a clear benchmark: if Coles and Woolworths pricing is significantly higher, the gap is visible and unjustifiable.

Free-range eggs. Another category flagged. Free-range premiums have expanded. If the premium becomes excessive, the ban will create pressure to narrow it.

Milk and yoghurt. Less dramatic margin growth than butter, but still a factor. These are high-visibility products that shoppers compare across stores. Any visible price advantage would be marketed aggressively.

Frozen and processed categories.

Frozen vegetables. Some frozen vegetable products show margin expansion not matched by input cost increases. These are less visible than fresh produce, which may explain why the margin expansion happened. They are also harder to compare across retailers (different brands have different availability).

Confectionery and snacks. The ACCC flagged certain snack foods as margin-growth categories. Chocolate biscuits and lollies fit this pattern. These are discretionary items with premium pricing power.

Potential savings if the ban works.

If the ban brings margins back in line with input cost growth, what would the financial impact be for an average family of four?

• Beef mince. A 10% reduction on a $18/kg price saves $36 per year (assuming 2kg/week).
• Butter. A 10% reduction on $4.50/250g saves $47 per year (assuming 1.5x per week).
• Eggs. A 15% reduction on $5.50 per dozen saves $43 per year (assuming 1 dozen/week).
• Bacon. A 8% reduction on $12/200g saves $25 per year (assuming 1.5x per week).

Combined across these categories alone, a family might save $150 to $250 per year if the ban moderates pricing. That is meaningful, though not transformative.

Uncertainty.

This analysis rests on one assumption: that the ACCC will enforce the ban and that prices exceeding the legal threshold will be reduced. This is not guaranteed. The ACCC may take a narrow view of "significantly excessive." Retailers may challenge any enforcement action in court. The first cases will likely be the clearest ones, and it may take months or years to see systemic effects.

The safest prediction is: if the ban is enforced, these categories will feel it first. If the ban is not enforced or is so narrowly interpreted that it bites almost nothing, prices will continue upward regardless.

How to spot the effect.

From 1 July, watch these specific products in your Pinch app:

• Beef mince (500g), Coles and Woolworths
• Butter (250g home-brand), Coles and Woolworths
• Free-range eggs (12 pack), Coles and Woolworths
• Bacon (200g premium), Coles and Woolworths

If prices in these categories flatten or decline in July and August, the ban is working. If they keep rising, the ban is either not being enforced or you are shopping in a category not covered by the legal test.