Price watch

Updated 19 April 2026

Are supermarket specials actually cheaper?

Not all supermarket specials are genuine discounts. Here is how to tell real deals from marketing, using 52 weeks of price data.

Three types of specials

1. Genuine discounts (worth buying)

Actual price reductions that occur 2 to 4 times per year, typically 30 to 50 percent off. This is the cheapest the product gets all year. Examples: premium beef cuts dropping from $22/kg to $14/kg, or cleaning products at half price.

Strategy: stock up. These are rare enough and deep enough to justify buying extra.

2. Hi-lo cycling (neutral)

Products that bounce between two prices on a 4 to 8 week cycle. The "special" is mathematically real, but it happens so often that it is really just the normal lower price. You are not getting a deal; you are getting the expected price for this time of month.

Strategy: buy when it is low, but do not stockpile thinking you are beating the system. You are just buying at market rate.

3. Inflated reference pricing (caution)

The "regular" price was recently increased, making the "special" look bigger than it actually is. The ACCC called these "illusory discounts" in their 2025 inquiry and alleged that some "was" prices were charged for only a short period before the sale began. The discount is real in isolation, but fake in context.

Strategy: ignore. Check historical pricing. If the "special" price is where the product normally sits, walk past it.

How to tell the difference: 52 weeks of price history

If the "special" price is the most common price over the past year, it is not really a special. It is just the price retailers cycle to when they are not pushing the margin.

Genuine discounts show as isolated dips below the normal oscillation band. Inflated reference pricing shows as a recent jump in the "regular" price followed by a "special" that brings it back down to where it always was.

You need 12 months of data to see the pattern. Weekly specials flyers are designed to hide it.

What IS worth buying on special

Meat. Genuine specials save $5 to $10/kg. These are real discounts, not cyclical. Buy, freeze, and use over the next month.

Cleaning and laundry products. A 50 percent discount on dishwasher tablets or laundry detergent is genuine. These have long shelf lives and you will use them. Buy 6 months' worth.

Long-life pantry items. Pasta, rice, tinned goods, and beans on genuine discount (not the cyclic kind) are worth stocking. Non-perishable, always used, and the savings compound.

What is NOT worth buying on special

Items you do not normally buy. The "special" exists to create demand, not to reward loyalty. If you do not usually buy it, the discount is not a saving; it is a purchase you would not have made.

Perishables in bulk. Strawberries, berries, bread, and yoghurt on special do not stay good long enough. The money saved on the pack is lost when half gets thrown away.

Premium branded items. A premium brand at 25 percent off is still more expensive than the own-brand at full price. "Special" pricing on premium goods is a psychological trick, not a bargain.

The ACCC weighs in

In their 2025 inquiry, the ACCC looked at these exact tactics. They found that retailers were manipulating reference prices and special labelling to create an illusion of discounts. Their statement: "The ACCC alleges that in some cases, the 'was' price used as a reference may have only been charged for a short period before the 'special' was applied."

In other words: the game is rigged if you play by the headlines. Price history is how you win.